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Records · Evidence review

Impact review: Child hunger pages (Do, Practice, Learn)

The working record behind the pages, published as written. Source file source/impact/child-hunger-2026-11-05.md. All records.

Review date: 2026-11-05. Pages reviewed: content/child-hunger-do.html, content/child-hunger-practice.html, content/child-hunger-learn.html (all checked: 5 Nov 2026), against source/research/child-hunger.md.

Question: for each action the pages recommend, what is the evidence that it reduces child hunger, child deaths, or helps the affected people; what would the evidence rank higher; how do the actions land for the people affected and for people doing them together; and are the organisations we link to sound.

Decision this feeds: whether to keep, drop or re-rank actions on the Do and Practice pages. Who decides: Isaac. This document grades evidence; it does not edit pages.

0. Method, limits, grades

Every figure below comes from a source opened on 2026-11-05 unless marked otherwise. Source numbers [S#] point to section 7, which gives the URL, how it was read, and its grade.

Grades used for sources: primary (the journal article, government/UN document, the organisation's own filing or page); research (systematic review, meta-analysis, working paper); charity's own figures; evaluator (GiveWell, Charity Navigator, BBB Wise Giving Alliance); news; industry (fundraising-sector or company reports); advocacy (coalition pages); tertiary (Wikipedia, used only to locate dated events and the outlets that reported them); unread (seen in a search snippet or by title only, page not opened today).

Grades used for the evidence behind an action: strong (randomised or cluster-randomised trials, or high-certainty systematic review, plus an evaluator's cost-effectiveness estimate); moderate (trials for parts of the chain, observational or modelled for the part that matters most); weak (surveys, self-report, correlational); none-but-plausible; contradicted (good sources point the other way).

Limits today, stated so the gaps are visible:

A vocabulary point first, because it is load-bearing (CLAUDE.md §1). The pages use "child hunger" for two different populations: children dying with severe acute malnutrition abroad (the Do page's title and cost figures), and US children in food-insecure households (the "Closer to home" section). The evidence, the units and the best actions differ for each. The ranking in section 2 keeps them apart and says where a dollar or an hour does more.

1. Evidence behind each action on the pages (question A)

1.1 Summary table

#Action on the pageWhat the evidence saysGrade
A1Monthly gift to GiveWell Top Charities Fund or All Grants Fund (Do, step 2; Practice)Four programs with high-certainty trial evidence (nets, vitamin A, seasonal malaria chemoprevention) or an RCT (vaccine incentives); GiveWell's estimated average $3,500–$5,500 per life saved for 2022–24 funding; GiveWell's own March 2026 corrections cut some estimates 15–30%strong (with stated uncertainty)
A2Taimaka (malnutrition treatment, Gombe, Nigeria)Treatment protocols are RCT-tested for recovery; the mortality effect of treatment rests on 1980s–90s observational data; GiveWell models 8.8× cash against a 10× bar; Taimaka's own figures ($94/$132 per child, $1,500–4,500 per life) are not independently audited; no audited financial statements on file; no monthly optionmoderate for the program; the cost-per-life claim is the charity's own
A3ALIMA (monthly, US 501(c)(3) option)Runs its own RCTs (OptiMA-DRC: superior to standard care at 6 months); five GiveWell grants with modelled cost-effectiveness from 5× to 18× cash, one below the bar after a calculation error; audited 2025 accounts, 92% social missionsmoderate
A4IRC monthly (unrestricted)ComPAS cluster-RCT: simplified protocol non-inferior, 37% less RUTF, $918 vs $1,041 per child recovered; Mali cohort 92% recovery, 26% relapse at 6 months (IRC's own); GiveWell 8× cash vs 10× bar; but a monthly gift is unrestricted and 2025–26 saw layoffs of about a third of staffmoderate for the program; weak as a link from this gift to malnutrition treatment
A5Action Against Hunger monthly (unrestricted)GiveWell made one 2025 grant ($1.28M–$1.39M, RUTF procurement, northern Nigeria); the MANGO reduced-dose RCT was ACF's; the monthly page carries no outcome figures; FY2025 audited program share 82% (86.8% counting program support) against the "90 cents" claimmoderate-to-weak; the gift is unrestricted
A6UNICEF USA $47 "one carton" giftProduct page: "two month's supply of RUTF" for one child; "Your donation is unrestricted"; RUTF vs other diets: recovery probably improved (RR 1.33, moderate certainty), effect on mortality unknown (very low certainty); carton prices $37.66–$48.40 in 2026none-but-plausible as "buys a carton"; the page's "sells one carton" wording is wrong on the page's own terms
A7Call senators before 11 Dec: keep Nutrition at $165M, Food for Peace at $1.2BCalls change votes: two field experiments (e-mail, district-opinion) show effects; staff surveys (n=190–192) rank calls 84%; the Senate produced no FY2027 bills before the election and a CR extension into 2027 is the talked-about path. Nutrition line: evidence that funded programs work is moderate (Lancet 2013 model; Cavalcanti 2025 model). Food for Peace in-kind aid: cargo preference adds 23% to shipping cost; local procurement ~50% cheaper for grains and 14 weeks faster; one AER paper finds US food aid raised civil-conflict incidence, a 2023 EJ paper disputes the methodweak-to-moderate for the call; contested for the Food for Peace ask as worded
A8Find a food bank; give or volunteer onceFood pantry interventions improve diet outcomes modestly (14 studies, 5 RCTs, short follow-up); Feeding America's "$1 = 10 meals" is a leverage ratio, not a purchase; the network's 5.9bn meals include SNAP meals it enabled; SNAP alone paid $95.8bn in benefits in FY2025weak for reducing child food insecurity per hour or dollar; strong that the federal programs food banks route people to do reduce it
A9"Make it monthly"Fundraising Effectiveness Project: donors who gave 7+ times retained at 90% vs 14.4% for one-time donors (correlational, industry); no study shows monthly beats a lump sum for outcomesnone-but-plausible
A10Read one charity update a quarter; re-read GiveWell each NovemberNo direct evidence; effectiveness information had no average effect on giving and raised it only among large prior donors (Freedom from Hunger mail experiment)none-but-plausible
A11"Sent this page to one person"Social information raises gifts 12% (public radio field experiment); peer donations on fundraising pages lift later gifts; incentivised sharing raises new donations; bundling a favourite charity with an effective one raised effective donations 76%moderate
A12"Don't move your money on a picture" (Practice)Eisensee & Strömberg 2007: US relief to ~5,000 disasters 1968–2002 depended on competing news (Olympics), "obviously unrelated to need" — now read in abstract, not only metadatamoderate (one well-known study)

1.2 Notes per action

A1. GiveWell funds. GiveWell's top-charities page (last updated October 2026) lists Malaria Consortium's seasonal malaria chemoprevention at "$4,000 per life saved" (about $7 per child), Against Malaria Foundation nets at "$5,500" (about $6 per net), Helen Keller Intl vitamin A at "$3,500" (about $2 per child per year) and New Incentives vaccine incentives at "$4,500" (about $146 per infant), all "estimated average" figures for funding directed in 2022–2024 [S39]. The trial base: insecticide-treated nets cut child all-cause mortality 17% (rate ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.77–0.89; 5 trials, 200,833 participants; high certainty; trials ran 1987–2001, before pyrethroid resistance spread) [S48]; vitamin A supplementation cut all-cause mortality 12% (RR 0.88, 0.83–0.93; 19 trials, 1,202,382 children; high certainty) [S46], but the largest single trial, DEVTA (1 million children, north India) found RR 0.96 (0.89–1.03) and "contradicts the expectation ... of 20–30%"; its authors' meta-analysis including DEVTA gives 11% (5–16%) [S47]; seasonal chemoprevention prevents about three-quarters of clinical and severe malaria episodes (rate ratio 0.26 and 0.27; 7 trials, 12,589 children; high certainty) with an underpowered mortality estimate (RR 0.66, 0.31–1.39) [S49], and at scale across seven countries showed 88.2% protective effectiveness and 42–57% fewer in-hospital malaria deaths in the two countries with usable data, at US$3.63 per child per season [S50]; New Incentives' RCT (IDinsight, Aug 2017–Feb 2020) raised vaccination 14–21 percentage points [S43]. GiveWell's own per-charity pages give wider ranges than the headline: vitamin A $1,000–$8,500 by country, with an assumed mortality reduction of only 4–12% and a note that "some studies unexpectedly find small or no effects" [S40]; SMC $2,000–$7,000 [S41]; nets $3,000–$8,000 [S42]; New Incentives $1,500–$6,000 [S43]. Adverse signals GiveWell published itself: March 2026 entries on its "Our Mistakes" page say the vitamin A estimate may be about 20% too high (overlap with azithromycin), counterfactual access to nets and vaccines was underestimated, and DRC net-campaign cost-effectiveness may be overstated 15–30% [S45]. GiveWell's criteria page: "Estimates are often based on limited information and are therefore extremely rough" [S44]. Donations to the funds pass through with no GiveWell cut after card fees [S125]. Of $427M directed in GiveWell's 2025 metrics year, 29% went to the four top charities and 71% to other programs; the All Grants Fund took $153.6M and the Top Charities Fund $126.2M of $616M raised; GiveWell estimates its 2025 grants "will save about 86,000 lives" (its own model) [S18].

A2. Taimaka. GiveWell's grant page (published June 2025): $4,787,985 recommended November 2024 for three years, plus $483,054 for monitoring (March 2025); cost per child treated $105; "approximately nine times as cost-effective as unconditional cash transfers" (8.8× in the model) against a 10× bar; the model assumes treatment cuts all-cause mortality by about 59% (range 15–70%), resting on "historical observational studies" from the 1980s–90s with a 20% validity discount, because untreated children cannot ethically be studied; 92.9% recovery in 2024; 4,996 SAM cases admitted October 2023–October 2024; the page gives 1,128 deaths averted for the grant, which is about $4,245 per death averted (my arithmetic, not GiveWell's) [S17]. Taimaka's own pages say $132 per child treated and "$1,500 – $4,500 to save a life" (home, impact) and "Every $94 in our program treats a child" (donate) — three figures on three pages; "30,000+" cases treated; "817 – 1,517 lives saved"; no recovery, death, default or relapse rate is published on the pages read, though a live dashboard is linked [S24–S27]. An April 2026 Nigeria Health Watch piece says "over 12,000 children" treated to date — kept alongside the 30,000+ [S28]. The donate page offers card (Every.org), PayPal and bank transfer; no monthly option is shown; the Every.org checkout could not be loaded (HTTP 429) [S25]. Governance: Form 990 for 2024 shows revenue $682,142 and expenses $574,784 (small relative to the GiveWell grant, which may flow to the Nigerian entity); Charity Navigator rates it Three-Star, 82, with "Financial Statements: No", "Records Retention Policy: No", "Tax Form Disclosed on Website: No"; ProPublica flags Schedule L related-party transactions in 2023 and 2024 [S122, S123]. GiveWell's renewal decision was expected in 2026; no 2026 Taimaka page exists in GiveWell's sitemap [S17]. The Do page's line "the clearest line from your dollar to a child" is fair on program design and dashboard; it should not stand without the governance caveats.

A3. ALIMA. Trial record: OptiMA-DRC (896 children, open-label non-inferiority RCT): 72% vs 63% favourable outcome at 6 months (difference −9.0%, 95% CI −15.9 to −2.0) — the simplified, dose-tapering protocol was superior [S13]; a three-arm Niger trial comparing OptiMA, ComPAS and the standard protocol is registered with ALIMA investigators [S14]. GiveWell grants (agent-fetched pages): $1.0M incubation (Dec 2020/Jan 2021, Niger); $7,968,073 (May 2021, Chad; later re-estimated 9–18× cash); $13,455,542 (Nov 2022, Niger and Nigeria; 11–18×); $2M exit grant (Feb 2024, Chad) after Ngouri was re-estimated at 5× "after a calculation error", below the 10× bar, which GiveWell calls a mistake; $1.9M (June 2025, Far North Cameroon) after "ALIMA's previous USAID funding was cancelled", 7–11×, best guess 8×, "near our funding threshold", about $29 per person treated; and $4,711,130 (October 2025, Niger and Chad) in the metrics report [S32, S18]. GiveWell's standing reservation on every ALIMA page: "We do not have any direct evidence of the effect that malnutrition treatment has on mortality." Finances: 2025 statutory accounts audited (In Extenso, 29 May 2026): operating income €74.78M, deficit −€174,321, equity €3.34M, with €8.5M receivable from US government awards at year-end; 2025 annual report: 92% social missions, 230,818 malnourished children treated, 14 countries [S33, S34]. ALIMA USA (EIN 26-0397519): 2024 revenue $10.38M; Charity Navigator Three-Star, 85, 2 of 4 beacons [S122, S123]. The donate page offers "One-time or recurring monthly donation" with the US 501(c)(3) note; restriction is not stated [S35].

A4. IRC. ComPAS cluster-RCT (24 clusters, 4,110 children, Kenya and South Sudan): recovery 76.3% vs 73.5% (risk difference 0.03, 95% CI −0.05 to 0.10), mortality 1.8% in both arms, 122 vs 193 RUTF sachets per recovered SAM child, US$918 vs US$1,041 per child recovered [S11]. IRC's July 2023 research summary: Mali observational cohort of 27,500+ children, 92% recovered; community health workers achieved 94%; a 420-child prospective cohort found 26% relapsed to MUAC <125 mm within six months [S15]. GiveWell's January 2024 grant ($7,485,323, five countries): $215 per child reached, $5,487 per under-five death averted in the Burkina Faso example, 7.6–8× cash against a 10× bar; mortality assumption (40% MAM, 70% SAM) from 1980s–90s observational data, "This estimation method has major limitations" [S16]. Further GiveWell grants: $7,992,256 (April 2025) and $8,833,269 (January 2026) for DRC, Niger and Chad [S18]. The monthly page states plainly: "Monthly donations are not restricted to a particular IRC program" [S36]. Organisation: FY2025 revenue $1.31bn, 86% program services (IRC's own split); Charity Navigator Four-Star, 96, all four beacons; BBB accredited (February 2026); CEO compensation $1,123,092 plus $65,700 (FY2025). Controversy within 24 months: thousands furloughed or laid off after the February 2025 US aid freeze (42% of budget was US government), 56 US resettlement layoffs in 2026, and headcount down from 18,000 to 12,000 over 18 months (Semafor, September 2026) [S126]. Older: a $6,934,500 False Claims Act settlement (March 2021) over a Turkey-based bid-rigging and kickback scheme on USAID-funded Syria aid 2012–15 [S127]; IRC's own ethics unit reported 774 new matters and 169 substantiated allegations in FY2023 [S128].

A5. Action Against Hunger USA. GiveWell lists a grant "to locally procure and distribute 20,000 cartons of ready-to-use therapeutic food" in northern Nigeria among its 2025 aid-cut responses ($1.39M on the funding-cuts page; $1,281,869 in the metrics report — both kept) [S20, S18]. The MANGO trial (801 children, Burkina Faso, individually randomised) was implemented by ACF: a reduced RUTF dose after two weeks was non-inferior on weight gain (3.4 vs 3.4 g/kg/day) but linear growth slowed, especially under 12 months [S12]. The "Lifeline" monthly page offers $50–$1,000 a month, "first three monthly gifts are matched 2X" (undated), and shows no outcome figures; whether gifts are restricted is not stated [S37]. The 2025 audited statements: revenue $130.4M (down from $160.8M), program services 82.0% of expenses (86.8% if "Program Support" is counted), US government grants down from $40.8M to $8.7M, and a pending agreement to absorb the Micronutrient Forum; the "$0.90 of every dollar" claim matches FY2024 (90.4%) not FY2025 [S38]. Charity Navigator Four-Star, 90, four beacons; BBB accredited (July 2025); CEO total $471,152 (2024). ACF closed "more than 50 projects in 20 different countries" after the US terminations (its own release, 28 February 2025) [S130].

A6. UNICEF USA $47 gift. The nutrition catalogue lists "150 Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food Packets (RUTF)" at $47.00 [S29]. The product page: "Your gift provides one child with a two month's supply of Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF)" and "Inspired Gifts represent lifesaving aid. Your donation is unrestricted, allowing UNICEF to help children where the need is greatest." [S30]. So the Do page's "sells one carton" and Practice page's "$47 buys one child's course" are the gift's framing, not a purchase; the page should say the gift is unrestricted. On what RUTF does: the Cochrane review (15 studies, 7,976 children) finds standard RUTF versus an alternative diet "probably improves recovery" (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.16–1.54; moderate certainty) and "we do not know the effects on relapse ... and mortality" (RR 1.05, 0.51–2.16; very low certainty) [S8]; the Lenters meta-analysis: RUTF children 51% more likely to recover, no significant mortality difference, only two studies reporting recovery rates (79.7% and about 83%; the second figure was truncated in the text extracted) [S9]. A carton is 150 sachets of 92 g; 2026 UNICEF offshore prices run $37.66 (Edesia) to $48.40 (Tanjaka), Nutriset €40.99, "Last updated 14 August 2026" [S22]; CHAI's new agreement is US$32.50 per box, "30 percent below UNICEF's most recently published global average of US$46.70" (11 August 2026) [S23]. UNICEF USA's FY2025 Form 990: revenue $835.2M, expenses $594.1M; Charity Navigator Four-Star, 97; BBB accredited; the main site could not be read by any automated tool today [S122–S124].

A7. The call to Congress. Status as of 13 October 2026 (CRS R48956, version 7, the latest on congress.gov today): P.L. 119-103, signed 2 September 2026, funds the government "largely at FY2026 levels, through December 11, 2026"; Global Health Programs Nutrition: $165.00M FY2025, $165.00M FY2026, no subaccount in the FY2027 request (GHP total cut 45.6% to $5,123M), $165.00M in the House-passed H.R. 8595; Food for Peace Title II: $1,687.58M FY2025, $1,200.00M FY2026, request $0 (−100%), House $900.00M (H.R. 8646); McGovern-Dole $240M → $240M → $0 → $240M [S62]. The Senate column is blank: "The Senate never produced bills before they left for the election," and "I'm already hearing a lot of conversation about they're just going to extend that CR into the new Congress" (Bloomberg Government's Loren Duggan, Federal News Network, 26 October 2026) [S63]. Roll Call headlines on 4 November 2026: "Mike Johnson won't seek top GOP spot as House flips" and "Thune to run for minority leader"; Federal News Network's November headline reads "Hegseth vows to defend Pentagon policies as Democrats flip Congress" — headlines only, not an official count; if they hold, control of both chambers changes on 3 January 2027 [S64, S63]. So the December decision is more likely a CR level than a conference report; a call still lands on the people who set the CR and its anomalies, and the page's "before December 11" framing holds, but "the Senate hasn't acted" understates it. Does calling work? Field experiments: Bergan 2009 randomly assigned state legislators to a grassroots e-mail campaign and found "a substantial influence on legislative voting behavior" (magnitude not in the abstract) [S59]; Butler & Nickerson 2011 surveyed 10,690 New Mexicans and gave district results to a random half of the legislature, who were "much more likely to vote in line with constituent opinion" [S60]; Bergan & Cole 2015 ran a field experiment on constituent phone calls (title and journal confirmed via Crossref; abstract not retrievable today — unread) [S61]. The Congressional Management Foundation's 2017 report presents its 2015 staff survey (n = 190–192): in-person constituent visits 94%, individualized emails 92%, individualized letters 88%, phone calls 84%, lobbyist visits 83%, form emails 56% rated "some" or "a lot" of positive influence on an undecided member; a specific request (79%), district impact (78%) and a bill number (66%) matter in a message [S58]. These are staff opinions, not measured behaviour; the page's "84% of congressional staff" is correctly sourced but the survey year is 2015.

Does the money do what the page says? For the Nutrition line, the chain is modelled: Bhutta et al. (Lancet 2013) estimate ten nutrition interventions at 90% coverage would cut under-5 deaths 15% at Int$9.6bn a year [S5]; Keats et al. (2021) report the evidence "continues to support ... community-based approaches ... to manage children with acute malnutrition" [S7]; Cavalcanti et al. (Lancet 2025; 133 countries, fixed-effects panel plus microsimulation) associate USAID funding with a 32% lower under-5 mortality rate (RR 0.68, 0.57–0.80), 30.4M child deaths averted 2001–21, and project 4.54M (3.12–5.91M) additional under-5 deaths by 2030 if cuts continue — an observational model, not a count [S6]. For Food for Peace Title II (in-kind US commodities), the efficiency evidence points the other way: GAO found cargo-preference requirements raised food-aid shipping costs "by an average of 23 percent", about $107M, April 2011–FY2014 [S67]; Lentz, Passarelli and Barrett (2013) found local and regional procurement "results in a time savings of nearly 14 weeks, a 62 percent gain", with grains "over 50 percent" cheaper but processed commodities "not always cost-effective" [S68]; GAO-11-636 found more than $300M of FY2010 Title II funds went to buying and shipping commodities for monetization [S66]. Harm: Nunn & Qian (AER 2014) find "an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence and duration of civil conflicts", with no robust effect on onset [S69]; Christian & Barrett (Economic Journal 2023) show the panel-IV design behind such results can produce spurious correlations and "revisit recent studies of the causal origins of conflict" [S70]. Contest kept: in-kind aid still feeds people, the live alternative this December is a lower number rather than a smarter program, and the Edesia and MANA pages (US RUTF makers) name the State Department and USAID as buyers but neither mentions Food for Peace [S71, S72]; the page's claim that Food for Peace "pays for the food that keeps severely malnourished children alive" is not verified today. Not checked today: whether FY2026 Nutrition and Title II funds were actually obligated (apportionment holds), which would weaken a "protect the line" ask.

A8. Local food bank. The problem in US units: in 2024, 13.7% of households (18.3M) were food insecure; 7.3M children lived in households where children were food insecure; 751,000 children (1.0%) lived in households with very low food security among children (ERS, updated 30 March 2026; no notice about the report's future appears on the page) [S73]. What reduces it: SNAP receipt cuts the likelihood of food insecurity by roughly 30% and of very low food security by 20% (instrumental variables) [S74]; six months of SNAP participation (9,811 households, 30 states) was associated with 4.6–10.6 point lower household food insecurity and 8.6–10.1 point lower food insecurity among children, and a 2.0-point drop in very low food security among children in the cross-sectional sample (3.9% → 1.9%; not significant longitudinally), with the authors' own warning that the estimates "should not be considered indicative of the causal effects" [S75]; childhood access to food stamps raised adult human capital 6% of a standard deviation, economic self-sufficiency 3%, neighbourhood quality 8%, longevity 0.4 points, and cut incarceration 0.5 points, "a marginal value of public funds of approximately 56" (43M Americans, county rollout 1961–75) [S77], and reduced metabolic syndrome [S76]; a $60-per-child monthly summer benefit, randomised across households, "decreased the prevalence of the most severe food insecurity among children by one-third" (9.1% → 6.1%) and food insecurity among children from 43.0% to 34.7% (pooled n = 48,431 surveys, 2011–13) [S79]; universal free school meals through CEP cut households classified as food insecure by "almost 5 percent" [S84], and a 47-study review finds most studies positive on diet quality, food security and academic performance [S85]. Food pantries themselves: a systematic review of 14 articles (12 interventions, 5 RCTs) found pantry-based programs improved diet-related outcomes including food security, but "interventions were modest in scale and usually short in follow-up" [S89]. Feeding America: "$1 = 10 meals" is calculated by dividing pounds of donated food by Feeding America's operating costs and 1.2 lb per meal — a leverage ratio, not a purchase price [S90]; the FY2025 "5.9 billion meals" figure "includes SNAP meals Feeding America enabled through our SNAP application assistance programs" (312,000 applications assisted) [S92]; donated goods were $4.71bn of $5.33bn FY2026 revenue, 98.36% of expenses were program services, and the national organisation's food procurement was 94.6% donated by value (my arithmetic from the audit) [S93]. Scale: SNAP paid $95,759M in benefits to an average 42.1M people in FY2025 [S94]; at Feeding America's own conversion in the same report ($200bn over ten years "or around 6 billion meals lost per year", about $3.30 a meal — my arithmetic), SNAP delivers roughly five times the whole network's meals each year. City Harvest rescued 86.1M lb in FY2025, 97% donated by weight, 74% produce [S98]. Volunteering: no study of what a volunteer hour at a food bank produces was found; food banks' own pages ask for money and virtual drives first (City Harvest: a #GiveHealthy drive is "an alternative to a traditional canned food drive") [S97].

A9. Monthly giving. Fundraising Effectiveness Project, 2026 Q2 (17,000 organisations): overall donor retention 26.4%; first-time donors 11.3%; donors who gave seven or more times last year 90% vs one-time donors 14.4% [S112]. Correlational and industry-grade; it says recurring donors stay, not that recurring gifts do more. Breman (2011) found "mean increases in donations are significantly higher when donors are asked to commit to future donations" (two field experiments; magnitude not in the abstract) [S107].

A10. Reading updates; re-reading GiveWell. Karlan & Wood: adding scientific impact information to a Freedom from Hunger mailing "has no effect on whether someone donates, or how much, in the full sample"; large prior donors gave more, small prior donors less [S110]. Caviola et al. (2020): lay people think the best charities are 1.5× the average; experts say 100×; "participants donated more to the most effective charity ... when informed" [S109]. The yearly GiveWell re-read is the one habit this literature supports.

A11. Sending the page to one person. Shang & Croson: telling a public-radio donor what another donor gave raised contributions 12% ($13) [S102]; Frey & Meier: 2,500 students told that many others contributed were more likely to contribute [S103]; on online fundraising pages, "a £10 increase in the mean of past donations increases giving by £2.50" [S104]; donors asked to share on Facebook, with a small add-on gift as incentive, produced "benefits ... in increased new donations" [S105]; Caviola & Greene (Science Advances 2023): letting donors split between a favourite and an expert-recommended charity "boosting effective donations by 76%", plus 55% more with rising match rates; the platform raised $1.5M in 14 months [S108]. Caution: door-to-door asks lowered households' utility on average and a "Do Not Disturb" option cut giving 30% [S106] — asking is not free for the asked.

A12. News-driven giving. Eisensee & Strömberg (QJE 2007): US relief to about 5,000 disasters (1968–2002) "depends on whether the disaster occurs at the same time as other newsworthy events, such as the Olympic Games, which are obviously unrelated to need" [S120]. The Practice page marks this "unread"; the abstract has now been read (full text not). Update the grade on the page to "research, abstract read".

2. What one person can do that the evidence ranks highest (question B)

Frame: no special position, a few hours a month, a modest budget (the pages use $20 a month). Two outcomes are in play and the ranking says which each action serves: child deaths (global) and child food insecurity (US). Per dollar, nothing on the US side competes on deaths; per hour, the strongest-evidence US action (helping a family enrol in SNAP or WIC) has an RCT behind the enrolment step and quasi-experimental evidence behind the benefit, which the global side's "hour" actions (calls) do not.

2.1 Ranked top five

  1. Give monthly to GiveWell's Top Charities Fund (or to Malaria Consortium, Helen Keller Intl, AMF or New Incentives directly). Grade strong. High-certainty Cochrane evidence for nets (17% child mortality reduction) and vitamin A (12%, with DEVTA's null kept beside it), high-certainty morbidity evidence for seasonal chemoprevention, an RCT for vaccine incentives, and an evaluator's cost per life saved of $3,500–$5,500 on average (ranges $1,000–$8,500 by country), with GiveWell's own 2026 downward corrections disclosed [S39–S50, S45]. At $20 a month, $240 a year is 4–7% of one death averted (my arithmetic). Already step 2 on the page: keep as the first option.
  1. Give monthly to a GiveWell-vetted malnutrition-treatment program, if treating starving children is the point: ALIMA USA (monthly, 501(c)(3)) or Taimaka (one-time; no monthly option). Grade moderate. Protocols are RCT-tested for recovery (ComPAS non-inferior; OptiMA-DRC superior; MANGO non-inferior), programs report 76–93% recovery, and GiveWell models 5–18× cash across grants — mostly just under its 10× bar — on a mortality effect it says has "no direct evidence" [S11–S17, S32]. This ranks second not because the evidence is stronger than for cash transfers but because of A11: people give more effectively when they can split between the cause they feel and the program with the best numbers [S108], and the site's topic is this cause. State the uncertainty on the page: one death averted per roughly 40 children treated at GiveWell's Taimaka numbers ($4,245 per death at $105 per child — my arithmetic from [S17]).
  1. Help one US family get onto SNAP or WIC (volunteer with a benefits-enrolment program or your food bank's SNAP outreach), or give to the organisation that does it. Grade moderate-to-strong per hour. Information plus application help raised SNAP enrolment from 6% to 18% among 30,000 likely-eligible people in a randomised trial [S78]; SNAP participation is associated with 8.6–10.1 point lower food insecurity among children [S75] and a 30% lower likelihood of food insecurity [S74]; WIC reached 51.2% of eligible people in 2021, and child coverage falls from 64% at age one to 25% at age four [S87]; Feeding America's network assisted 312,000 SNAP applications in FY2025 [S92]. Caveat: Finkelstein & Notowidigdo found the people who enrol in response to outreach are less needy than those already enrolled [S78]; Benefits Data Trust, the trial's partner, could not be checked today. This is the best-evidenced US action and it is not on the page.
  1. Call (or write individually to) your senators and representative on the specific live decision, with the facts current that week. Grade weak-to-moderate. Two field experiments show constituent contact moves legislators [S59, S60]; staff rank calls below visits and individual emails [S58]. For December 2026 the ask with the best evidence behind the program it protects is the Global Health Programs Nutrition line ($165M) and humanitarian assistance; the Food for Peace ask should change from "keep $1.2B" to "keep food assistance at least flat and let it buy locally or in cash", because the in-kind evidence runs against the page [S65–S70]. Add the domestic parallel where it applies: a resident of one of the 12 states not running Summer EBT (Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah; New York participates) can ask the governor and state legislators to opt in, backed by a randomised evaluation showing a one-third cut in very low food security among children [S79–S81]. An individualized email ranks higher than a call in the staff survey (92% vs 84%) and costs the same five minutes [S58].
  1. Make the giving social and sticky: set it to recur, tell one person what you give and why, and if your workplace matches, use the match. Grade moderate for the mechanisms, none-but-plausible for outcomes. Social information and peer gifts raise giving (12%; £2.50 per £10) [S102, S104]; a match raises response and revenue, with no extra from 2:1 or 3:1 [S99]; bundling lifts effective giving 76% [S108]; recurring donors are retained at 90% vs 14% [S112]. Cautions kept: matching can crowd out later giving once it stops [S100]; a lead gift announcement may do as much as a match [S101]; social pressure costs the asked [S106].

Not in the top five, and why: cash transfers to the extreme poor (GiveDirectly) now have a large RCT showing 48% fewer infant deaths and 45% fewer under-5 deaths in 653 Kenyan villages, but at USD PPP 299,418 per death averted untargeted (about $39,000 nominal if targeted to third-trimester pregnancies; about $14,000 for below-median households — the authors' own back-of-envelope figures) against GiveWell's $4,304 for malaria medicine that the same paper cites [S54]; a multi-country study finds cash programs "associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women" (magnitudes in the full text, not retrievable today) [S55]. Cash is the benchmark the malnutrition programs are measured against, and the honest line is that it is very well evidenced for consumption and now for survival, at a higher cost per death. Volunteering at a food bank (sorting, packing) has no evidence of reducing child food insecurity per hour beyond the pantry literature's modest short-term effects [S89]; the organisations themselves ask for money first.

2.2 Drop, keep, re-rank

Page itemVerdictReason (one line)
GiveWell Top Charities / All Grants Fund, monthlyKeep, firstStrongest evidence on the page; add GiveWell's March 2026 corrections and the DEVTA contest in a footnote
TaimakaKeep, with caveats; move below ALIMA or state bothClearest dollar-to-child design and dashboard, but no monthly gift, no audited statements on file, Charity Navigator three stars, three different per-child figures on its own pages, 8.8× cash below GiveWell's bar, renewal pending
ALIMAKeepOwn RCTs, audited accounts, monthly US option; disclose the 5× Chad re-estimate and the "near threshold" Cameroon grant
IRC monthlyRe-rank down; keep as "large organisation, unrestricted"Program evidence is good (ComPAS), but the gift does not go to nutrition; disclose 2025–26 downsizing and the 2021 $6.9M False Claims settlement
Action Against Hunger monthlyDrop from the main list or move to a footnoteUnrestricted, no outcome figures on the giving page, one small GiveWell grant, "90 cents" claim does not match FY2025 audited share (82–87%)
UNICEF USA $47 "carton"Keep, rewordProduct page says the gift is unrestricted and "represents" aid; say "funds UNICEF's nutrition work; priced as one child's two-month supply"
Call Congress: Nutrition $165MKeep; update statusSenate produced no bills; CR extension into 2027 likely; House changes hands 3 Jan 2027
Call Congress: Food for Peace $1.2BRe-wordIn-kind food aid evidence: 23% cargo-preference premium, LRP 50% cheaper and 14 weeks faster, contested conflict finding; ask for flat, flexible humanitarian food assistance instead
Local food bank: give or volunteer onceRe-word and re-rankGive cash not cans; volunteer for SNAP/WIC enrolment or benefits outreach rather than sorting; add the Summer EBT opt-in ask for the 12 states
"Make it monthly"KeepRetention evidence is industry-grade and correlational; say so (the Learn page already does)
Quarterly update; November GiveWell re-readKeep the re-read; trim the quarterlyNo evidence either changes outcomes; the re-read is the one habit with support
"Sent this page to one person"Keep; strengthenPeer and social-information effects are real; suggest telling one person what you give and why
"Don't move it on a picture"Keep; regrade sourceEisensee & Strömberg abstract now read
Not on page: help a family enrol in SNAP/WICAddBest-evidenced US action per hour (RCT for enrolment, quasi-experimental for the benefit)
Not on page: Summer EBT opt-in ask (12 states)Add, conditional on reader's stateRandomised evaluation behind the program; a state decision a resident can still influence

2.3 Global vs domestic, per dollar and per hour

3. Communal impact (question C)

3.1 Who benefits, how much, and known harms, per kept action

3.2 Harm from well-meant actions (for the Q&A or drill)

3.3 Doing it with others: which formats have measured effects

FormatMeasured effect (field experiment or natural experiment)Self-reported or industry only
Workplace / employer matchMatch offer raises response rate and revenue; 2:1 and 3:1 add nothing over 1:1 (50,000 donors) [S99]; long-run participation falls after a match ends [S100]; announcing a lead gift does as well as a linear match (14,000 opera attendees) [S101]Participation rates in workplace campaigns: not fetched today
Social information in a group (what others gave)+12% ($13) per gift when told another donor's amount [S102]; students told many others gave were more likely to give (2,500) [S103]; £2.50 more per £10 higher mean past donation on fundraising pages [S104]—
Peer-to-peer asking onlineSmall add-on incentives raise willingness to post; "benefits to incentivizing peer-to-peer fundraising in increased new donations" [S105]—
Household (parents and children)Parents' religious giving strongly correlated with children's; secular giving less so (PSID) [S111] — correlational, not experimental—
Pledge communities (Giving What We Can)—11,401 lifetime 10% pledgers plus 1,771 trial pledgers; "donated over $500 million USD" (self-reported); pledge-fulfilment rate not published on the pages read [S113]
Giving circles / collective giving—"more than $3.1 billion collectively in the US between 2017 and 2023" (Philanthropy Together); member counts and the "give more since joining" figure were not on the page read [S114]
Congregations—Not fetched today (Giving USA 2026 page gave no figures)
Classroom "giving games"—No source fetched today
Recurring-donor programsCommitment to future increases raised mean increases (two field experiments) [S107]7+ gifts/year donors retained 90% vs 14.4% one-time (FEP 2026 Q2, 17,000 orgs) [S112]
Bundling a favourite with an effective charity+76% to the effective charity; +55% with rising match rates; platform experiment [S108]—

Reading across the table: the formats with measured effects are the small, cheap ones a page can prompt — tell one person what you gave, show the amount others give, offer the split between a favourite cause and the best-evidenced program, and ask people to set an increase for next year rather than today. The formats sold as communal (circles, pledges, congregational drives) have only self-reported totals in what was fetched today.

4. Organisations (question D)

All checks dated 2026-11-05; 990 data from ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer [S122]; ratings from Charity Navigator (CN) [S123] and BBB Wise Giving Alliance [S124]. CharityWatch pages were blocked (403) for every organisation; its grades appear only as unread snippets and are omitted below. "None found" is bounded by the searches the agents could run, listed in their notes (section 7, S122–S133).

Organisation (EIN)OperatingLatest filingRatingsControversy, last 24 monthsPay (CEO, year)Monthly gift
GiveWell / The Clear Fund (20-8625442)Yes; posts dated 27 Aug 2026990 FY2024: revenue $269.5M, expenses $183.7M; 2025 audited: revenue $406.0M, expenses $282.8M, 96.6% program (grants $260.4M) [S125]CN Four-Star 100 but 1 of 4 beacons (Impact & Measurement not completed); BBB "Did Not Disclose" (June 2026)None found. Self-reported March 2026 modelling errors (VAS ~20% high; DRC nets 15–30% overstated) [S45]. Older: 2008 founders' astroturfing, ED removed [S129]Elie Hassenfeld $424,805 + $38,590 (2024)Yes
Taimaka (84-3964208)Yes; blog 29 Oct 2026; 14 clinics, 2 inpatient sites (Nigeria Health Watch, Apr 2026)990 FY2024: revenue $682,142, expenses $574,784; Schedule L related-party transactions flagged 2023–24CN Three-Star 82; Financial Statements "No", Records Retention "No", Tax Form on Website "No"; BBB noneNone foundJustin Graham $38,372 (2024)No (donate page); Every.org checkout not loadable
ALIMA (France, SIREN 831 620 398) and ALIMA USA (26-0397519)Yes; news to 20 Oct 2026; 2025 annual report July 2026ALIMA 2025 audited accounts: operating income €74.78M, deficit −€174,321, equity €3.34M; ALIMA USA 990 FY2024: revenue $10.38M, expenses $10.28MCN (USA) Three-Star 85, 2 of 4 beacons; BBB noneNone found (French-language search not run). Disclosed: USAID terminations ended a Cameroon project April 2025; GiveWell's 5× Chad re-estimate [S32]Charlie Kunzer (USA) $158,760 + $4,943 (2024); France not disclosedYes
International Rescue Committee (13-5660870)Yes; FY2025 annual report June 2026990 FY Sept 2025: revenue $1,314.0M, expenses $1,276.2M; 86% program (IRC's split)CN Four-Star 96, 4 of 4; BBB meets 20 standards (Feb 2026)Feb 2025 mass furloughs/layoffs (The New Humanitarian); 2026 US resettlement layoffs (WARN); staff 18,000 → 12,000 (Semafor, Sept 2026) [S126]. Older: $6.93M False Claims Act settlement, Mar 2021 [S127]David Miliband $1,123,092 + $65,700 (FY2025)Yes, unrestricted
Action Against Hunger USA (13-3327220)Yes; press releases to 5 Nov 2026990 FY2024: revenue $160.8M, expenses $160.0M, 90.4% program; 2025 audited: revenue $130.4M, 82.0% program (86.8% incl. program support); US gov grants $40.8M → $8.7M [S38]CN Four-Star 90, 4 of 4 (Oct 2026); BBB accredited (July 2025, on FY2022 data)50+ projects in 20 countries closed after US terminations (own release, 28 Feb 2025) [S130]; pending absorption of the Micronutrient Forum (audit note). No misconduct foundCharles Owubah $471,152 total (2024)Yes
UNICEF USA (13-1760110)Gift shop live; main site unreadable by automated tools; 990 FY June 2025 on file990 FY2025: revenue $835.2M, expenses $594.1M (surplus $241.1M); CN program ratio 85.66%CN Four-Star 97, 4 of 4 (Oct 2026); BBB accredited (June 2025)None found about UNICEF USA; US-policy context items (UNICEF strategic plan vote, funding rescission) unreadMichael Nyenhuis $928,033 + $48,831 (FY2025)Could not verify (donate page blocked)
Feeding America (36-3673599)Yes; press room to 2 Nov 2026990 FY June 2025: revenue $5,001.4M, expenses $5,006.7M; FY2026 audited: revenue $5,334.0M, 98.36% program; donated goods $4.71bn [S93]CN Four-Star 96, 4 of 4 (Oct 2026; working capital 0.10 years, score 12%); BBB accredited (Apr 2026)None found. CEO Claire Babineaux-Fontenot retired; Denis McDonough CEO from 14 Apr 2026 [S131]Babineaux-Fontenot $1,048,375 + $165,653 (FY2025)Yes
City Harvest (13-3170676)Yes; Daily News drive 20 Oct 2026–15 Jan 2027990 FY June 2025: revenue $215.7M, expenses $223.3M (deficit −$7.6M); audited FY2025: 92.9% program; 86.1M lb rescued, 97% donated by weight [S98]CN Four-Star 94, 4 of 4 (Oct 2026); BBB accreditation issued Oct 2024, expired Oct 2026, no renewal foundNone foundJilly Stephens $761,527 + $57,031 (FY2025)Yes

Lighter checks on the four GiveWell top charities the Do page describes without naming (item 1 only; no news searches could be run): Helen Keller Intl (13-5562162): operating (newsroom to 23 Sept 2026); CN Four-Star 97 on 1 of 4 beacons; its newsroom cites Inside Philanthropy (7 April 2026) saying it "lost a third of its operating budget because of abrupt U.S. government funding cuts" (unread) [S132]. Malaria Consortium US (98-0627052): site blocked; CN Four-Star 90 on 1 of 4 beacons with flags "Independent Board Size 4", "Tax Form Disclosed on Website = No"; GiveWell "do not currently have any significant concerns" [S41, S132]. New Incentives (45-2368993): operating (posts to 5 Aug 2026); CN Four-Star 94, 2 of 4, "Highly Cost-Effective", flags on board size and M&E investment; GiveWell notes higher fraud risk and some federal-government opposition [S43, S132]. Against Malaria Foundation (20-3069841): operating (counters live; "GiveWell – Top Rated 2009 to 2025"); CN Four-Star 91, 4 of 4, "Highly Cost-Effective", but "Financial Statements = No", "Working Capital = 0.00 years"; GiveWell: "our qualitative assessment of AMF is less positive than for our other top charities" [S42, S132].

Stronger-evidence organisation doing the same job?

5. What would overturn this, and when it goes stale

Overturning evidence (things that could be found in the world):

Staleness:

6. Where the walk stops

7. Sources

Format: [S#] citation — URL — how read — grade. "Fetched" means opened on 2026-11-05 with WebFetch or curl; "E-utilities" means the PubMed abstract via NCBI's efetch API on 2026-11-05; "API" means Crossref, OpenAlex, Semantic Scholar or Europe PMC on 2026-11-05; "agent" means fetched on 2026-11-05 by one of the two organisation-check sub-agents; "unread" means title or snippet only.

Burden and context

Malnutrition treatment

GiveWell top charities and evaluators

Cash transfers

Advocacy, appropriations, food aid

US domestic

Group formats and harms

Organisation checks (both sub-agents, 2026-11-05)

Not fetched today, by name, so the gaps are visible: Save the Children 28 Aug 2025 release (403); the Reuters report of the Secretary of State's denial that aid cuts caused deaths (research-file snippet only); Giving USA 2026 figures (page gave none); Hunger Free America pages (JavaScript-only); Benefits Data Trust closure; the USDA ERS decision on the 2025 food security report; any FY2026 apportionment or obligation data for Nutrition and Title II; CBO's estimate for P.L. 119-21 (cbo.gov topic page 403); the full texts of the Cochrane reviews; Charity Navigator Impact & Measurement scores for GiveWell, Taimaka and ALIMA USA (not published).

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